Sales Drop for Third Month; 10 for July
Pending/Turnover Holding Steady
Inventory Remains Consistent
July Results for Sold homes:
Down four from June, 10 homes closed escrow during July. A few months ago, we wrote about a fun measurement I ended up calling the Match Tick. It’s a funny name, I know but it was derived from watching stocks tick and I use it the same way. The number is a summary of all Trilogy at Redmond Ridge sales activity including the number of available properties, those that are pending inspection or the close of escrow, and those that are either marked sold, cancelled or expired. Our low “Match Tick” for 2014 was eight in January, it rose to an all-time high of 68 in June, was around 62 in July and, today, we are at 55. The message is it’s slowing down.
Slowing down doesn’t mean it’s not a good time to sell. Less competition can mean more time to get in your comfort zone. Trilogy is such a unique and sought after community, the truth is that almost any day of the year is a good time to sell, if that’s what you’re thinking of doing. When it’s slower, it will require a veteran Trilogy broker to get it done in most cases and getting full price is tougher. Forget about December 10th to about January 2nd of the New Year; people are enjoying the Holidays. That’s about the only time that it’s nearly impossible to sell a home so don’t be rushed if you’re not ready. It is slow from about a week or two before Thanksgiving but not dead.
Here’s the breakdown on what did sell:
Model |
Original Asking Price |
Sold Price |
Days on Market |
Elephant Thoughts |
| Chelan | $389,000 | $389,000 | 2 | Properly Presented |
| Discovery | $414,950 | $410,000 | 8 | Twinberry Way |
| Union | $449,900 | $419,000 | 10 | Quick price drop to $429K snags buyer. |
| Discovery | $430,000 | $430,000 | 9 | Popular Floor Plan |
| Discovery | $498,900 | $498,800 | 8 | Elevated with Spectacular Mountain View! |
| Whidbey | $559,000 | $554,000 | 31 | Elevated Territorial & Pond View! |
| Vashon | $599,850 | $597,350 | 90 | Lovely Greenbelt but wish I knew more….? |
| Monticello | $949,950 | $824,900 | 66 | Lovely and biting my tongue. |
| Maryhill | $1,095,000 | $850,000 | 43 | Golf Course & $245K Price Drop??? |
*Homes in bold; the Elephant’s work. There was an over half million dollar spread between the least expensive home sold and the most expensive. That’s one of the wonderful things about Trilogy, regardless of your price range or size of home, almost anyone who wishes to enjoy the lifestyle has the opportunity. Every home is built the same way, and with little exception, has the same upgrades available to it. The yard care and amenities are equal to all and the quality of life is hard to beat. One well liked member, who gives as much as he receives, once said to some prospects of mine, “One thing I love about Trilogy is that there aren’t any rich people or any poor people here. Everyone is here for the same reason; the lifestyle.” Thanks, Jim! I couldn’t have said it better.
Moving on, it’s the same old story. We still find over-priced homes suffer shocking drops in the end, view homes and those with significant upgrades sell for more money and a well presented home sells quickly. Strategies vary among listing brokers and their sellers. Pricing can depend upon how much Sellers really care. Literally, and I’m not being sarcastic, sometimes Sellers just don’t care about the money and just want to get the house sold. In this case, Brokers should care for them.
New Homes Under Contract!
Pending sales are down two from June, three from May and 10 from April with 13. It will be interesting to see what kind of activity we have in July. Two of the Pending sales still need to pass the inspection process. One of the 13 is the lingering Washington built where Shea’s office trailer used to be. It will celebrate a year in Pending status on the 15th of August.
Here’s what’s currently Pending or Pending Inspection:
Model |
Asking Price |
Days on Market |
Notes |
| Chelan | $318,691 | 121 | ARCH Home |
| Townsend | $388,000 | 90 | Sunbreak Way |
| Union | $409,750 | 62 | ARCH Home |
| Washington | $514,950 | 34 | Closed August 5th |
| Washington | $549,900 | 25 | Shea Homes Straggler |
| Bainbridge | $559,000 | 14 | |
| Bainbridge | $599,000 | 6 | Sunbreak Way Greenbelt |
| Bainbridge | $599,900 | 93 | Greenbelt Lot |
| Maple | $699,800 | 54 | |
| Alder | $750,000 | 59 | |
| Cedar | $759,950 | 15 | Incredible Corner Greenbelt Lot |
| Union – P.I. | $489,900 | 21 | Over $100K in Recent Upgrades |
| Hemlock – P.I. | $740,000 | 27 | Lovely Corner Greenbelt |
*Homes in bold; the Elephant’s work. There was an over half million dollar spread between the least expensive home sold and the most expensive. That’s one of the wonderful things about Trilogy, regardless of your price range or size of home, almost anyone who wishes to enjoy the lifestyle has the opportunity. Every home is built the same way, and with little exception, has the same upgrades available to it. The yard care and amenities are equal to all and the quality of life is hard to beat. One well liked member, who gives as much as he receives, once said to some prospects of mine, “One thing I love about Trilogy is that there aren’t any rich people or any poor people here. Everyone is here for the same reason; the lifestyle.” Thanks, Jim! I couldn’t have said it better.
Moving on, it’s the same old story. We still find over-priced homes suffer shocking drops in the end, view homes and those with significant upgrades sell for more money and a well presented home sells quickly. Strategies vary among listing brokers and their sellers. Pricing can depend upon how much Sellers really care. Literally, and I’m not being sarcastic, sometimes Sellers just don’t care about the money and just want to get the house sold. In this case, Brokers should care for them.
What’s Available?
As of August 1st there were 22 homes available. This number has gone up about one home each month since at least May. At the same time, we are seeing slightly less homes under contract from month to month over the last several months. This may end up having an effect on supply vs. demand in Trilogy and Buyers may be less inclined to offer much under asking price of a properly priced home if they want to get it. It might be a strategic time to pop on the market if you’ve been thinking of selling. Less competition usually means less effort getting that sold sign out front.
Here’s what’s for sale!
Model |
Original Price |
Asking Price |
Days on Market |
Elephant thoughts: |
| Chelan | $385,000 | $354,950 | 93 | Dropped another $10K |
| Chelan | $398,000 | $398,000 | 8 | Nice Upgrades. |
| Orchard | $433,888 | $433,888 | 12 | |
| Union | $439,000 | $439,000 | 14 | ARCH Home |
| Union | $464,900 | $454,900 | 55 | |
| Madison | $489,000 | $489,000 | 6 | Now Pending Inspection |
| Vashon | $529,000 | $519,900 | 80 | |
| Whidbey | $529,000 | $529,000 | 27 | |
| Washington | $539,500 | $539,500 | 35 | Now Pending Inspection |
| Vancouver | $565,000 | $540,000 | 94 | Backs to Busy Road |
| Whidbey | $559,000 | $552,900 | 34 | |
| Washington | $559,950 | $559,950 | 35 | Opulent Upgrades |
| Vancouver | $619,950 | $579,950 | 85 | |
| Bainbridge | $599,950 | $599,950 | 36 | |
| Hemlock | $759,000 | $739,000 | 36 | |
| Cedar | $769,950 | $749,950 | 56 | |
| Oakwood | $797,950 | $789,950 | 88 | |
| Cedar | $850,000 | $818,900 | 92 | Golf Course Home |
| Redford | $849,800 | $849,800 | 56 | |
| Maryhill | $940,000 | $899,000 | 153 | Corner Greenbelt |
| Monticello | $920,000 | $899,000 | 34 | Golf Course Home |
| Redford | $1,025,000 | $999,000 | 22 | Golf course Home |
*Homes in bold; the Elephant’s listings. The average home had been on the market 52 days at the beginning of the month. That’s up 33% over June and 400% since March’s 13 day average. Again, it’s slowing down. All of the Elephant’s closings YTD average 23 days on market at over 99% of asking price. There are only five homes available under $450K. The numbers seem to say, at least over the last couple months, homes with price reductions are stimulating contracts and those who are holding firm seem to be staying on the market. I am not a fan of price drops but sometimes the market’s timing is impossible to forecast. Snowballs gain momentum when going downhill, better to make a small drop right away and sell before bigger price drops become necessary. I prefer to price properly to begin with and not apologize for what we’re asking.
Note: All currently available listings are posted HERE on our website. We report what is available at the first of the month for consistent and measurable month over month reporting.
A Little Fun in “The Hood” or Not?
I mentioned I was holding an Open House in “The Hood” to a delightful lady member yesterday. When I gave directions to “Cedar Heights/Division 10” she responded, “That’s not the Hood. We’re the Hood.” She meant “The Fairways/Division One” where our visit was taking place. “Do tell” was my response with an enlightened, inquiring smile. Apparently, there is a group of eight ladies that have been calling the Fairway location of get togethers “The Hood” for years; even before Cedar Heights was in existence. Can Cedar Heights be an imposter? I hope not. I have lots of friends up there. Was there actual knowledge prior to adopting the same endearing name in Cedar Heights or do we have an unintentional copycat? I don’t know but one this is for sure, these ladies are very proud of being founders of “The Hood”. Hmmm, could a tug of war be in our future or at least a pinochle challenge? Hopefully the eight women won’t be arming with trash can lids and garden rakes….only time will tell.
How is the Market Doing?
I simply said, “It’s slowing.” Every active broker knows this. Allow me to be perfectly clear, the market is still strong enough. Core Logic Price Index reports home price increases were 8.3% in May and down to 7.5% for June. Part of this is simply the time of year as the peak months tend to be March through May.
Core also, reports a moderate rise in inventory nationally but a less than expected demand for homes so they’re predicting just a 5.7% increase in pricing for 2015 over this year. In a neighborhood like Trilogy, where pricing peaked early and leveled off about two months ago, we may see about half that increase for next year. This should help those thinking of selling. Outside Trilogy, prices will rise considerably faster, although not at a rocket’s pace, than home prices in Trilogy. Thinking of selling? If so, it’s a no brainer. Sell high here and buy sooner where you’re going.
For buyers, things are looking good. Jobless claims are at their lowest since February of 2006 and a strong job market is a good indication of continued recovery. With all the fighting overseas, investors are still moving stock holdings into a safer place, bonds. When bonds improve, interest rates go down and that means more bang for your buck for the new home buyer. Less competition and slower moving inventory has buyers being more particular because they can be. That’s exactly what brokers and home sellers are finding in Trilogy; buyers are being pickier. This is why home sellers should do everything they can think of to make their presentation stand out.
Final Thoughts
I have an inherent quality that makes me report everything that’s going on, even if it could hurt my business. The truth is what you deserve and the truth is what I do my best to deliver. With that in mind, pricing seems to have found its base for a ceiling for most floor plans. Why wouldn’t it? We’ve been selling the same 17 floor plans since 2001, added four more with the Lakes Collection in 2004 and the Nice and Monaco to help sell the final lots for 23 plans altogether. Barring the Nice and Monaco, who were late to the party, there have been numerous sales of most floor plans and at least several sales of the less popular. We can’t help but establish a basis over time.
The Chelan and Townsend seem to find their ceiling under $400K, the Vashon around $530K, the Whidbey around $550K, the Bainbridge about $600K, the Hemlock and Cedar in the low to mid $700s and there are other examples. YES, an exceptional home site or level of upgrades and even custom upgrades can make a difference. My team had the honor of selling a Chelan for $430K in December 2013. They had added more square footage with a nicely done sunroom. Custom upgrades from “outside the box” thinking can payoff. Having something to offer no one else has is a great motivator for buyers; just don’t get crazy.
Sorry this is so late this month. A decent market report takes research and time. We’ve been using a lot of that time to make sure all the sales we’ve been blessed with close escrow. We considered skipping a month but felt the information this month was too important to withhold. We hope you feel that same way and we thank you for reading.