The Original Trilogy at Redmond Ridge Market Report

The Original Trilogy at Redmond Ridge Market Report

Sales Drop 40% for September…
       Eight more for October Waiting in Escrow….
                 Inventory Growing with Days on Market Slowing…
                         The Elephant Getting it on the Table….


9 September Sales with One Under the Radar

Here’s what closed Escrow during September.


  Model Northwest Multiple Listing Number Original Asking Price Asking Price when Sold Final Sale Price Days on Market
1 Discovery 1363273 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 0
2 Discovery 1360250 $599,980 $599,980 $602,000 2
3 Union 1343423 $685,000 $685,000 $682,000 18
4 Vashon 1363416 $719,000 $719,000 $710,000 9
5 Whidbey 1348383 $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 3
6 Maple 1309146 $925,000 $879,950 $860,000 62
7 Hemlock 1331320 $880,000 $880,000 $865,000 27
8 Cedar 1339207 $999,500 $999,500 $995,000 6
9 Hemlock 1330349 $1,125,000 $1,125,000 $1,125,000 4


It wasn’t a bad month of September, with nine sales, just one less than the same month last year. This gives us 83 to date. Just 21 sales for the last quarter could match the 104 for 2017. 19 more would make the fifth consecutive year of 102 sales or more. There were just 74 in 2013, when we began to truly recuperate after the mortgage crisis.


September’s lowest sale price was a Discovery that was sold un-listed. This means that it was never made available to the 23,000+ agents in Washington. This can hurt the Seller’s in some instances but not all. There have been 13 Discovery sales this year, followed closely by an even dozen of the much more expensive Hemlock plan.


The listed homes all sold at asking price, give or take, with one exception. The Maple plan spent over 2 months on the market and sold for $860,000 or $65,000 below the original asking price. The home was clean but modestly upgraded and staged. It’s tough being close to a busy road and takes some Trilogy experience to get the asking price. The Pachyderm did it recently with a Union plan backing to Trilogy Parkway. It took 24 days. The Average days on market for the eight listed sales was just over two weeks at 16. The average sales price was $826,750.


Eight in Escrow Edge up From September’s Six

            Here’s what Uncle Sam is waiting to collect excise tax on…

  Model Northwest Multiple Listing Number Original Asking Price Asking Price when Offer Accepted Days on Market
1 Discovery* 1354449 $620,000 $605,000 22
2 Orchard 1361997 $625,000 $625,000 2
3 Whidbey 1358928 $759,950 $759,950 18
4 Union 1350028 $679,950 $679,950 15
5 Orchard 1346285 $749,000 $749,000 8
6 Monaco 1296052 $795,000 $765,000 113
7 Whidbey 1346315 $810,000 $774,900 35
8 Hemlock 1360108 $1,150,000 $1,150,000 11

Homes in Bold & Green; the Elephant Representing SELLERS!

(*Pending Inspection)

Eight Sellers await recording numbers and proceeds. The smaller homes seem to be dominating the market right now with one or two at a time mixing in around the million-dollar mark. Our local 1%ers dropped their price 2.5% on the entry level Discovery and a long-time Trilogy Broker, offering a lower than typical Selling Broker commission, followed suit lowering, the price of their Greenbelt Whidbey 4.5%. The Tusker’s first Monaco resell ever spent some time on the market testing the waters. The results were good, and we’ll report the happy ending next month after we’ve closed. All remaining listings held strong on asking price, including a mid-level Hemlock on the golf course and close to the social hub.


October’s Selection Sneaks up to Eleven

   Here’s what Buyers had to choose from at Month End.



  Model Northwest Multiple Listing Number Original Asking Price Current Asking Price Days on Market
1 Chelan 1345122 $550,000 $535,000 26
2 Union 1355630 $563,699 $563,699 28
3 Vashon 1364016 $695,000 $695,000 40
4 Vashon 1362618 $749,000 $719,000 11
5 Bainbridge 1350166 $775,000 $752,500 40
6 Sammamish 1367396 $769,990 $769,990 5
7 Vancouver 1364257 $779,000 $779,000 13
8 Hemlock 1364257 $895,000 $895,000 11
9 Cedar 1355385 $1,029,000 $1,029,000 26
10 Hemlock 1343846 $1,195,000 $1,075,500 54
11 Monticello 1367501 $1,299,000 $1,299,000 6

Remember, this inventory is as of the last day of the month. It’s an accurate way to review sales month over month. Homes in Bold & Green; the Elephant Representing SELLERS!


Prospective Buyers call me often. They ask, “What does a small home cost in Trilogy?” I answer, “Pricing starts at $600K.” You can’t touch a home in Trilogy for less than that. Lower income Buyers wait for these opportunities. There are two of them now, a Chelan for $535,000 and a Union for $563,699 and they’ve been on the market close to a month. There’s an art to selling an ARCH home (A Regional Coalition for Affordable Housing).


In 2017, both November and December ended with one single home in inventory. Last month, I mentioned there would be more homes coming on the market. September ended with 11, our highest Year to Date. At one point, there were 14 available. This should carry us into a decent remainder of the year for sales. We’ll see if we break double-digits. It’s close. If we don’t, days on market could get considerably lengthy for about half of our Sellers, which will lead to a few price drops and possibly one or more Sellers deciding to take their homes off the market until after the holidays. The next 30 days will tell us a lot. Typically, there’s a second wind in September then activity drops greatly after the ten days of November.



Here’s a Recap of Year-to-Date Stats:

*New Days on Market (D.O.M.) Watch!


  Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. YTD
$old 4 5 6 8 17 12 7 15 9       83
Pending 7 7 7 15 9 6 15 7 8        
Active 3 1 9 9 7 9 4 8 11        
$old D.O.M. 38 19 10 17 17  










Happy to Get it on the Table:


Make it happen, watch it happen or wonder what happened. Pachyderms prefer the former. It’s inherent. I am committed to helping you meet your commitments. That’s why I don’t discount my services or your home. It takes concentrated effort, time and money and I’m not going to leave any part of that out. I’m committed to do whatever it takes to get top dollar for your home. You can’t discount commitment like that. You are not a number on the wall among many, wondering which one will stick.


I have three homes in Escrow with Sellers who chose the Elephant Way. Three others interviewed me, got the information they sought and went for discounts, when I would not. In my opinion, instead of stepping up their game, a couple of familiar Brokers caved in, they sold out. I will not. I will not sell you out either. What part of my service to you am I supposed to leave out? I won’t do that. All three misses remain on the market, two a month or more and two of Trilogy’s top selling floor plans have dropped their prices by 3% & 4% respectively . To not be too specific, let’s say that’s a minimum of $20K and $30K in discounts. By the time you read this, those listings will have spent 3 and 6 weeks on the market. There go the savings and more, and there goes valuable market time. No matter the profession, in my experience, some workers tend to perform to the scale of their pay and stay there or go away. This too shall pass. I always felt, if you work beyond your pay scale, you’ll move up it. I’m not bitter about not getting the listings one bit. I am sour about the wasted time, which is why I’m nipping this in the bud now.


I love the hundreds of Buyers and Sellers I’ve had the honor of serving over the last 15 years in Trilogy. I plan to continue to offer my “Premium Service” to as many of you who will have me, and I’ll continue to measure my success by one thing, how well I serve you.


I spend countless hours collecting data, making every effort to report accurately and trying to offer you something of substance. So, I hope you don’t mind if I take the liberty to make one thing clear. For those true of heart, this shouldn’t offend you. If it does, you have my sincere apology. To anyone wondering If I’ll weaken to compete with the bottom dwellers, who went where the rest of us fair playing field brokers would never go, the answer is NO, and Realtor chatter is they are not appreciated by their peers who deserve to be paid for driving Buyers around for weeks on end, maybe having to make offers on multiple homes before securing one.


By the way, when someone advertises “Full-Service”, that cracks me up. That’s like saying you can get a hamburger at McDonalds. You can’t sell a house without being full-service. 100% of Listing Brokers are “Full-Service”. Duh! Now, “Premium Service” is a different thing. It’s that second scoop of ice cream when you only paid for one. The Owner of the seven Realty One Group offices, where I hang my shingle, has run those businesses nearly 40 years with great success. He said, “Discount Brokers have been trying that for decades. It doesn’t work.” I like big thinkers and that’s why high-end Sellers choose the Elephant. Just a little Real Estate inside information, when a Broker is working on admitted “Volume”, especially when splitting commissions with a partner, the way money is made is by picking up Buyers at Open Houses. Then, when the overwhelming majority of Listing Brokers are offering a 3% Selling Office Commission, they get paid. Local Brokers like working with the Elephant and his big Trilogy Cranium. They’re big thinkers too. Elephants don’t budge, and we despise mice.


If you understand that Premium Service comes with neither a discount nor an added fee, I’d be delighted to work with you and get you to your goal in a very exciting, strategical and organized way. My fee is no more than has been traditional for decades. It’s very fair to say that I know Trilogy and the Shea Homes designs and infrastructure better than any resale broker in the Industry and I work hard. My excel spreadsheets and NWMLS reports support my Sellers received over 100% on average during 2018 year to date, for listing “The Elephant Way.” It involved no tricks, no gimmicks and is well-respected among my peers.


If what you’re looking for is free information and discounts, please, be respectful and let’s save the dime and our time. It’s not polite. This restaurant offers six-star service .


Final Thoughts:


It’s been a very busy first three-quarters of 2018. The year has been filled with flurries of new listings and, of course, the welcoming of many new and excited Members. We wish you all a very warm welcome to your “New Home, New Friends and New Beginnings.” There have been several longer than usual slow periods this year, as well. Some have had to do with an unusually warm Summer and others came with no solid rhyme or reason. Most would agree, the frenzy couldn’t go on forever and we’re slowing down. For us Brokers, and I’m sure many of you, it comes as a relief. We all need rest and we all prefer less guessing about what’s going on as we plan our futures.


As predicted in our 2017 Year in Review Booklet mailed to all 1,522 Trilogy addresses last January, appreciation did slow down into the 6% range for 2018. That’s still a very good rate of increase in equity. Similar growth is anticipated for 2019 so go ahead with your plans. It’s a wonderful time to take your time, plan carefully and when you need a hand with that, I hope you’ll reach out. Elephants have big ears and I’d love to hear all about it.


That’s a wrap for September. Thanks a million for reading and we’ll see you next month.


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