The Elephants September 2022 Trilogy Market Report

Presented By Devin Sanford Homes

Third Quarter Specific Trilogy Home Activity…
Marketplace Corralling Sellers into Reality…
Pachyderm Presumes Some Ought Sell

September Slides to Seven Sales

Model NWMLS Number Square Footage Original Asking Price Asking Price When Sold Final Sale Price Dollars/ Square Foot Days on Market Percentage of Asking Price
Discovery 2002751 1,350 $872,500 $872,500 $872,500 $646.30 N/A Sold Off Market
Discovery 1976980 1,350 $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 $703.70 12 100%
Monaco 1988109 1,590 $985,000 $985,000 $985,000 $619.50 1 100%
Whidbey 1957911 1,680 $1,070,000 $1,025,000 $998,000 $594.05 63 93.27% (1%ers)
Whidbey 19822623 1,670 $998,500 $998,500 $1,075,000 $643.71 2 107.66%
Bainbridge 1960271 1,870 $1,175,000 $1,150,000 $1,125,000 $601.60 49 95.75%
Hemlock 1923213 2,155 $1,499,000 $1,499,000 $1,489,000 $690.95 96 99.33%

The “Sold Off Market” property is not calculated into the 37 days average a listed home spent on the market; a number that is creeping up including properties which took 49, 63 and 96 sunrises to sell, respectively. The NWMLS requires agents to report off market sales after they close escrow for statistical reasons. The multiple allows two scenarios for this; one way is when a Seller has a Buyer and hires an agent to write up the agreement for them and the second is when a home is being sold “For Sale By Owner” or a “FSBO”, in which case the Real Estate Broker approaches a FSBO with their own Buyer, negotiates a fee for bringing said Buyer, and writes it up.

We are certainly seeing more asking prices tilt toward reasonable. These tend to sell faster and hold their price or close to it. The days of everything becoming a bidding war are over. Case-Shiller reports over 70% of national listings have had a price reduction. The days of throwing it against the wall and seeing if it sticks are over. Those who were more stubborn and, in denial that the market has changed spent longer times on market and settled haven given price concessions. Everything comes in phases, and I expect we’ll see ridiculous asking prices fade away and become more in line with the market, along with some normalcy returning regarding the time it takes to acquire an agreement. Sellers will need to keep their properties looking tip-top after the initial makeover a bit longer. Those that exercise that attention and diligence will be rewarded. These are the things I focus on; taking the time to prepare the property properly and maximizing proceeds with a short exposure time versus the opposite.

Pending Sales Stand Stern at Six

Model NWMLS Number Square Footage Original Asking Price Asking Price When Sold Dollars/ Square Foot Days on Market Comments
Union 1985681 1,510 $975,000 $939,900 $622.45 30 Granite & Wood Floors, Territorial View
Whidbey 1982623 1,670 $998,500 $998,500 $597.90 1 Modest, Territorial View & in Need of TLC
Bainbridge 1989428 1,870 $1,185,000 $1,185,000 $633.69 1 Greenbelt, Partial Golf Course View
Hemlock 1993727 2,305 $1,388,000 $1,250,000 $542.30 76 $138K Drop – 1%ers
Hemlock 1970809 2,300 $1,575,000 $1,500,000 $652.17 30 $75K Drop – 1%ers
Monticello 1942175 2,695 $1,425,000 $1,600,000 $593.69 57 Raised Price $175,000!

Two Trilogy Island Collection homes sold the day they were listed. These are mid-sized plans that work well for those sizing down from the three-car garage and larger models or upsizing from a smaller or attached product. In the detached or “duplex” category, the most popular Union plan lowered the price a tad over $35,000 before solidifying a contract. We’ll see how the $939,900 pans out and it seems our attached products, shy of a golf course or view location, have capped out at least for now, without threatening that seven-figure mark. The Washington is the largest of the nine attached plans at 1,900 base square feet. The highest price ever received for a Trilogy home was a Monticello at a cool two-million dollars even. It was sold off market under a Seller Representation Agreement back in May and rests on the coveted 17th Fairway. It’s a different market now and we’ll have to share what happened with the Pending Monticello after it closes.

Eight Active Emulate August End

Model NWMLS Number Square Footage Original Asking Price Current Asking Price Dollars/ Square Foot Days on Market Mentionable
Washington 1986838 1,900 $686,397 $686,397 $361.26 7 ARCH Home
Townsend 1985724 1,330 $825,000 $799,950 $601.47 37 Twinberry Way
Washington 2000304 1,900 $950,000 $950,000 $500.00 5 Big Leaf Way
Bainbridge 1998170 1,824 $1,125,000 $1,125,000 $616.78 9 Interior Lot Near Club
Vancouver 1992241 1,920 $1,195,000 $1,195,000 $622.40 17 Corner Lot in Div. 6
Maple 2001162 2,575 $1,495,000 $1,495,000 $580.58 100 Cul-de-Sac/Told Pipeline
Maple 1970938 2,520 $1,549,000 $1,519,000 $602.78 59 Greenbelt Homesite
Hemlock 1983864 2,170 $1,695,000 $1,695,000 $781.11 21 Golf Course Lot in the Enclaves

NOTE: Figures and statuses are as of September 30th, 2022, for month over month comparisons. The number of homes for sale will change by the time this market report has processed to you.

The Northwest Multiple reports active listings are double from a year ago yet pending sales have declined more than 31%. It’s not hard to see the forest through the trees using the old supply and demand theory. We have more supply yet less demand than when we had twice the supply. Inflation and rising rates aren’t helping. Yet still a sellers’ market, it is still more opportunistic for buyers than it has been in over a decade and current inventories are still lower than they were pre-pandemic at about six- or seven-weeks’ worth remaining. Remember, economists feel four to six months of inventory is a balanced market. I no longer agree; I would say three to four months would be a fair playing field for buyers and sellers in our region.
Money Magazine just ranked Kirkland the third best place to live in the U.S. and the median sales price was $1,355,000 while Eastside homes in general were over $1.2m. This is not good for those in the smaller homes, supporting what I shared earlier about upsizing or downsizing making mid-level homes competitive. In other parts of the country $900k buys a mansion but here it must support a lifestyle. This may indicate for those concerned, a seven-figure homeowner may be fine, but it may be a good time for a six-figure homeowner to make a move and you don’t want to hire a volume broker for that. Call the Elephant and we can work together methodically to make your nest move a highly rewarding one.

I’ve never written this way so perhaps it may help those with open ears. that we had month over month double digit price increases consistently which ended in July, and they continue to fall. Some economists predict national home appreciation to be as low as the 1% range for 2023; locally we may triple that. Home ownership is a good hedge for inflation but, if you plan to make a move, my 19th year of Trilogy focus says do it now, sell high and buy low elsewhere.

Now more than ever, correct pricing is eminent if Sellers want to capture these more selective Buyers. They need to be SOLD on Trilogy. Furthermore, Sellers must be hyper-local in their pricing strategy and considering what is happening now and not weeks and months ago. Nobody knows Trilogy better and cares more about the members than the placid Pachyderm. Don’t be afraid to call me if you’re looking for some guidance.

Trilogy Sales Over the Last Decade

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Resales 87 103 99 102 120 104 102 78 99 105 57
Shea Homes New Construction 10 9 3
Total $old 97 112 102 120 104 102 78 99 105 TBD

Final Thoughts

I’ve always said, “Trilogy is a different animal” and it may still hold true, although I’m doubting it regarding perception of the real estate contingency’s actions. You could count on one hand those of us Brokers who knew how to share the lifestyle of New Homes, New Friends and New Beginnings or the other “tri” of Social Interaction, Health and Well-Being and the Ability to Learn New Things. I feel one or two of us may be the last of the Mohicans. Look at the array of companies and names on the signs around Trilogy. Do they understand the depths of what “Trilogy” really means? With the soon ending lack of inventory, we’ve been experiencing over the pandemic period, it’s obvious for many Buyers and their Agents, “A house is a house, and we’ll see if we like the lifestyle.” Lifestyle used to be the priority. I used to explain to appraisers, Realtors new to the Trilogy presentation and customers how, “Trilogy is a different animal.” I explained, if an exact floor plan were available outside of the Trilogy boundaries, it wouldn’t be worth as much as a parallel Trilogy plan because of the amenities and the unique concept; it’s one of a kind. It’s up to us to promote this.

However, there’s a few problems with that. I’m guessing that those who are selling really don’t care to promote it as they’re leaving anyway. Secondly, there are so many new members who “bought a house” and were robbed of the proper resort living introduction due to Covid, they don’t really get the concept yet and lastly, the brokers “selling houses” don’t really understand it. Too, the developer is only spending money on promoting new Trilogy communities, not those that have closed out. They did a great job of promoting the Active Adult lifestyle. Again, it’s up to us. My heart is in it. Is yours? Those who are staying, encourage your friends to maximize their profits by hiring someone who can do so by selling the intrinsic value, the lifestyle. Leave the legacy; don’t just leave. Take care of those who chose to stay. The Elephant owes it to the community to knock your presentation out of the park. Trunk it with marketing that says, “Come join Trilogy and all the fun and new friends that come along with it.”

It takes experience in doing that to ask top dollar and get it. I worked out of the Tour Center for years and use that to a sellers advantage.


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That’s a wrap for September 2022! Enjoy the Sunshine and Thank You for Reading.

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Did You Know the Elephant Serves Central Snohomish County?


It was mostly woods when I grew up in Lynnwood where we rode our sleds down 196th Street and my childhood home is now a Wells Fargo Bank, and our motorcycle riding grounds are the Alderwood Mall and an array of businesses. I grew up in the Edmonds School District and went swimming at Mukilteo and Edmonds beaches, lived in Woodinville and ran Track for Monroe then graduated from Inglemoor High School in Bothell. As an adult I’ve lived in Everett, Mill Creek, Monroe and on Lake Stevens. If you or someone you know need a Snohomish County Expert, I’d be delighted to hear from you.

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NOTICE: – If you’d like to join the hundreds of Trilogy Members who get these monthly reports DAYS SOONER via E-Newsletter,
join at under the “ABOUT” tab and we’d be happy to add you to our list of in the know recipients.

A Recap of 2022 Month over Month Statistics:

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
$old 2 2 9 5 9 7 5 11 7 57
Pending 2 3 2 7 7 11 12 6 6
Active 0 1 2 6 6 10 8 8 8
$old D.O.M. 4 5 6 4 4 13 9 30 37
Active D.O.M. n/a 5 1 9 17 23 33 33 36


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