The Elephant’s June 2019 Review of Trilogy at Redmond Ridge

The Elephant’s June 2019 Review of Trilogy at Redmond Ridge

A Sprinkling of Sales Start Summer…
                     Market Going Through Corrections….
                                          Caution to Sellers Making Commitments…
April Showers Yield Few May Flowers
Here are the Four Homes that Closed Escrow during May!


  Model Northwest Multiple Listing Number Original Asking Price Asking Price when Sold Final Sale Price Days on Market
1 Discovery 1426665 $637,000 $637,000 $637,000 8
2 Whidbey 1442053 $739,950 $739,950 $739,950 10
3 Whidbey 1426572 $779,000 $779,000 $779,000 5
4 Hemlock 1416575 $1,100,000 $1,100,000 $1,100,000 5

Homes  in Bold & Green; the Elephant Representing SELLERS!


“If it aint broke, don’t fix it” some high intellect once said. Such was the case with sales consummated during the month of May. If the price is right, there’s no need to fight. Conversely, I couldn’t agree more with a recent report from the NWMLS quoting several Brokers who said, “Sellers need to learn the new normal. If you overprice your home or fail to get it in good condition for selling, it will cost you time and money in the end.” Three of the four sales for May were comfortably under $800,000, the lower end of the price range in Trilogy. Buyers aren’t arguing too much about a newly listed, properly priced home in that range. Even still, they’re not having or willing to fight by offering any more than asking price. The Hemlock is literally the closest home to the Cascade Club and located first on the left in the old Model Gallery. The upper-end quick sale was a no brainer.


Uncle Sam Collects on One-Half Dozen During June


  Model Northwest Multiple Listing Number Original Asking Price Asking Price when Sold Final Sale Price Days on Market
1 Discovery 1450513 $599,950 $535,000 $535,000 29
2 Discovery 1406085 $609,900 $599,900 $590,000 53
3 Vashon 1368852 $769,500 $699,500 $699,500 218
4 Whidbey 1448586 $838,000 $799,000 $799,000 11
5 Hemlock 1438818 $997,450 $997,450 $997,450 76
6 Redford 1459716 $1,250,000 $1,250,000 $1,255,000 2

Homes  in Bold & Green; the Elephant Representing SELLERS!


These six sales bring us to 34 for the first half of the year. We had 52 sales at the same time last year, a decrease of 35%. 2017 and 2016  years yielded 45 and 60 respectively. I keep waiting for that year over year consistent flurry of activity to show up, but it continues to evade us. For months, I’ve scrutinized articles, interviewed counterparts and real estate related professionals resisting to accept what I now welcome as the truth; at least in Trilogy, things are back to normal. It seems we read everywhere that the market is leveling but still strong and pricing continues to slowly rise. I agree. There are even small pockets where small bidding wars still  happen. Those are neighborhoods near job centers, less expensive outlying areas or high-end Lake Front Homes. Out there in the real world, there’s just shy of two months of Inventory. Trilogy is flexing from three to four months. This time last year, it was three weeks. Don’t despair. Our market is correcting. I like to call it stabilizing and more predictable. Stronger Brokers will prevail for their cooperative Clients.


As I scroll through my Excel spreadsheet of the 2019 sales, most of them are homes ranging from $535,000 to  under $750,000. An astounding one-third are homes beginning around the million-dollar mark and significantly on up. ONE HOME HAS SOLD BETWEEN $870,000 and $997,500. In other words, nothing in the middle is moving. It’s crystal clear to me, and has been for a bit, lower end Buyers are stretching to enter this Resort Lifestyle and upper-end Buyers can afford to wait for the right house.


Mid-range Sellers don’t fret. Your home will sell but, if like me, you were caught signing a listing right in the middle of the market correction before you were sure it was happening, you may need to make a small adjustment to your price to increase traffic. Such was the case with my Cedar listing on Big Leaf Way. Once the price is right, it’s just a matter of finding the right butt for the seat, professionally speaking. Additional reductions don’t seem to be necessary with a quality presentation. Just get used to the new normal; three or four months of market time expectation and hopefully, you’re the sale that happens quicker.


When pricing an upper end home in this community, you’ll want a Broker who is Trilogy seasoned and can recognize when there’s an opportunity to knock it out of the park. Such was the case with the Redford. There have been only four Estate Collection homes sold year to date. The Pachyderm represented three of them, setting an all-time price record in the midst. Just saying’….


 Seven Seeking Successful Recording…

              Here’s what Uncle Sam is waiting to collect tax on…

Model Northwest Multiple Listing Number Original Asking Price Asking Price when Offer Accepted Days on Market
1 Chelan 1443692 $510,000 $510,000 45
2 Townsend 1477733 $760,000 $760,000 7
3 Union 1465031 $639,000 $639,000 23
4 Bainbridge 1452810 $760,000 $760,000 39
5 Whidbey 1450130 $775,900 $775,900 10
6 Bainbridge 1427262 $849,000 $835,000 68
7 Cedar 1417530 $1,039,950 $997,500 110

Remember, Pending Sales are as of the last day of the month. It’s an accurate way to review sales month over month.

 Home  in Bold & Green; the Elephant Representing SELLERS!


The Chelan took a contingent offer early on. Contingencies are no longer a four-letter word. There have been and will be others this year. They can make good sense in a slower market, often commanding a strong sales price and/or other attractive terms. The Townsend is a Stand-Alone Home, meaning it has no common walls with another unit. Simply put, they’re rare and thus more valuable. The Union was prepared and presented properly by yours truly and brought a prettier price than that which was recommended prior by our local 1%ers. The three Island Collection homes were status quo and the days on market of the Cedar coincides with my earlier statement that, once price is aligned with the changing market, it’s a matter of attracting the right Buyer.


19 Sellers Waiting Diligently…

Trilogy Inventory as of April 30th, 2019         

Model Northwest Multiple Listing Number Original Asking Price Current Asking Price Days on Market Remarks
1 Chelan 1444960 $639,950 $499,999 67 Reduced 22%!
2 Vashon 1473402 $679,000 $679,000 17
3 Sammamish 1459868 $718,695 $695,000 44
4 Whidbey 1446286 $725,000 $699,950 66
5 Orchard 1477502 $710,000 $710,000 11 Stand Alone Home
6 Vancouver 1466825 $779,000 $712,000 285 10 Mos. On Market!
7 Washington 1436460 $734,000 $734,000 82 Mtn. View & Nice
8 Bainbridge 1441906 $815,000 $799,000 73 Chic on Greenbelt!
9 Maple 1468556 $899,995 $899,995 28
10 Alder 1422444 $978,000 $948,000 108 1.5 Story Home
11 Maple 1475454 $999,000 $999,000 67
12 Cedar 1481171 $999,000 $999,000 4 Greenbelt Home
13 Hemlock 1435984 $1,025,000 $999,000 80 Gorgeous Home!
14 Hemlock 1469288 $1,195,000 $999,950 236 Dropped $195,050.00!
15 Cedar 1443578 $1,039,950 $1,019,000 68 Impeccable &Greenbelt!
16 Hemlock 1445274 $1,079,950 $1,079,950 54 Custom Upgrades!
17 Maple 1469154 $1,099,000 $1,099,000 26 Best Driveway Award!
18 Monticello 1410259 $1,165,000 $1,100,000 125 Greenbelt Home.
19 Maple 1459812 $1,275,000 $1,199,000 44 Lighting Fast Buy & Sell!

Remember, this inventory is as of the last day of the month. It’s an accurate way to review sales month over month. Homes in Bold & Green; the Elephant Representing SELLERS!


It’s a New Ballgame; Sellers Need Plan Carefully


Frankly, I’m relieved. I think everyone knows what’s going on and the anxiety of asking one’s self “what crazy price can we ask for our home? We might get it!” is over. The price reductions you see, baring those who Brokers who have no clue what they’re doing, are simply market corrections.


You should know that King County pricing has dropped nearly 2% year over year and there’s over 30% more inventory than this same  time last year. Now the kicker, and I’ve said it many times, Trilogy is ahead of the curve. We have twice the inventory of the King County average. Our Members are more experienced. Most of us move faster so, to some degree, forget King County. We need to understand what’s going on in our own, unique back yard.


Being ahead of the curve, we’re the first to frantically get goofy with pricing when things get hot and it often pays. Just the same, when things begin to show signs of slowing, we need to adjust sooner than the working-class neighborhoods. It’s not only the Sellers that are Savvy, the Buyers are from the same mold. So, why has the average home been on the market 78 days? Reason one is because there are so many Brokers with listings that are unfamiliar with Trilogy. Coming from many Broker conversations, they think “It’s just another house in King County” and they act like it. I have Brokers who have never sold a home in Trilogy trying to tell me the market has softened. I don’t want to fall for it but when others do, they’re driving your values down or, at the very least, stopping the escalation. It’s here folks, normalcy. Reason two is a no-brainer. Sellers are holding out, which, excluding the unrealistic or stubborn, is good. If you’ve already corrected, hold out. You’ll protect Trilogy home values.


Here’s a Recap of Year-to-Date Stats:

*New Days on Market (D.O.M.) Watch!


Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. YTD
$old 2 4 8 10 4 6             34
Pending 5 5 11 4 5 7              
Active 9 8 12 20 19 19              
$old D.O.M. 3.5 42 52 36 7  


Active D.O.M. 87 95 52 53 69  



Final Thoughts:


Everything is fine. We’re back to normal. The good news is, other areas and states are getting there, as well. For those of you moving on, you have the buying power too. It’s just not the Buyers of your home that are coming, and they are coming. If you’re among the majority who do not have the luxury of carrying two homes for several months, many of you are realizing that you need to slow down and sell first. That’s wise. There will likely be plenty of Sellers waiting for you with several homes to choose from wherever you’re going.


This is important. Exceptional homes may still sell quickly, as in the case of our Redford sale mentioned earlier. The Hemlock was right next to the club and a popular floor plan; a no brainer. There’s a stand-alone Townsend on a huge cul-de-sac lot currently pending the close of escrow. Again, a rare home in an attractive price range.


Are you going to be realistic when pricing your home soon? Are you being honest with yourself as to whether your home is exceptional, meaning really has something about it beyond the rest of the usually lovely homes in your community? If so, an educated strategy, along with a strong presentation and you’ll probably sell quickly, reaping great reward.


For the remaining, nice homes with every level of views, fits & finishes and proximity to the club, will continue to move but you’ll need to price perfectly, now more than ever. It’s not easy. I’ve had three experienced Brokers calling me for advice as to what they can do to make their Trilogy listings go. They’re beside themselves. I feel for them and respect they’re reaching out. I’m courteous and helpful to a point but “My name is Willy not Silly, Dear Old’ Mom used to say.” I never know when someone will call me with a competing listing. The Elephant knows what’s going on, continues to put Sellers in Escrow and is turning over every stone to get the rest of them where they want to go. I sincerely, hope this is of some help to every one of you who are trying to do the same.


That’s a wrap for June 2019!

We hope you’ve found some value in this report and we thank you for reading!

The Pachyderm and Support Team


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