November 2019 Review of Trilogy at Redmond Ridge

Sales Down 75% Year-over-Year. Lack of Inventory Likely the Reason. Median Price Range Near a Plateau. Seven Solidified During November

Here are the Homes that CLOSED Escrow during November!

  Model NWMLS
Original Asking Price Asking Price when Sold Final Sale Price Days on Market
1 Chelan 1507463 $468,950 $468,950 $468,950 67
2 Discovery 1516896 $639,000 $639,000 $634,000 9
3 Bainbridge 1521647 $839,900 $839,900 $840,000 2
4 Cedar 1513590 $878,000 $849,950 $848,450 72
5 Hemlock 1537236 $950,000 $950,000 $960,000 0
6 Hemlock 1527392 $985,000 $985,000 $965,000 358
7 Cedar 1512631 $1,100,000 $1,049,000 $1,020,000 42

January of this year, you received our much more comprehensive, 2018 Trilogy Year-in-Review. The final article prognosticated “peaks and valleys in sales activity”, as well “60 to 90 days becoming the norm” market time for 2019. That’s precisely what we saw. I say, “saw” because, with two homes in escrow and five with yard arms, you can put a nail in the coffin for getting anywhere near 100 sales for the year. We’ll need five sales in December to make the 80 units mark, making up the lowest total since 2011, when there were 74 (see the chart below). At 75 year-to-date, we’ll see if December can finish with five more.

Year-Over-Year Units Recap

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Resales 74 87 103 99 102 120 104 102 *75
Shea Homes New Construction 9 10 9 3
Total Sold Homes 83 97 112 102 102 120 104 101 *75

*Through November 2019.
Two Tiptoe into Escrow
Uncle Sam will have to get paid elsewhere this Christmas. Here are your two PENDING sales.

Model Northwest Multiple Listing Number Original Asking Price Asking Price when Offer Accepted Days on Market
1 Orchard 1528373 $648,000 $648,000 34
2 Washington 1532530 $668,000 $668,000 31

Remember, Pending Sales are as of the last day of the month. It’s an accurate way to review sales month over month.

Each of these contracts are for attached product, as were the two most affordable sales in graph one. Four of the five remaining closed homes were upper-end homes. There was only one mid-level sale, making Trilogy not unlike the rest of King County. I encourage you to read this report on the home page of, where it will be followed by the Western Washington Market Report, compliments of the NWMLS. It shares the median price range “edged up just over a percentage point as compared to a year ago. This falls in line with multiple reports from a Pachyderm, sharing the “Island Collection” of  homes, including  the Vashon, Whidbey, Bainbridge, Vancouver and later Monaco and Nice floor plans has leveled out in pricing and, in some cases, taken a hard fall. I’d like to help it get back where it belongs. If you’re listing soon, ask me how.

We’re Prepared for WHATEVER!

Trilogy is not unlike King County, in this “mid-range” respect, and I’ve seen it coming for years. Smaller homes allow those with limited incomes to still enjoy the resort lifestyle.  Buyers fight for them, helping them sell quickly. The upper end of the pricing spectrum, conversely, allows those with deep pocketbooks to reach into them for that Signature Home.
Five Fishing for Offers…
Trilogy Inventory as of November 30th, 2019

Model Northwest Multiple Listing Number Original Asking Price Current Asking Price Days on Market
1 Chelan 1542841 $549,500 $549,500 4
2 Chelan 1521317 $549,950 $549,950 58
3 Sammamish 1523353 $615,979 $615,979 58
4 Maple 1468556 $899,995 $839,995 140
5 Hemlock 1541689 $980,000 $980,000 16

Remember, this inventory is as of the last day of the month. It’s an accurate way to review sales month over month.

Night Reflective Signage!

If you look into your own heart, and you find nothing wrong there, what is there to worry about? What is there to fear?


Here’s a Recap of Year-to-Date Stats:
*New Days on Market (D.O.M.) Watch!

Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. YTD
$old 2 4 8 10 4 6 8 8 10 7 7 75
Pending 5 5 11 4 5 7 9 13 9 5 2
Active 9 8 12 20 19 19 18 9 7 9 5
$old D.O.M. 3.5 42 52 36 7 65 38 48 88 56 79
Active D.O.M. 87 95 52 53 69 78 90 87 86 110 55

There’s  only so much the market will tolerate, and it seems we’ve reached it in the middle range. Extraordinary homes and/or locations are always the exception, of course. I believe the low end is to follow; I mean, how much is someone willing to pay for 1,400 square feet. Seattle and the surrounding area are expensive. The job world is flourishing around us and there’s no sign of it stopping soon. The Eastside, which includes Trilogy, will continue to see a rise in pricing at the upper end, with slight rises, at or below inflation, in the lesser ranges. For those seeking something more reasonable, many retirees are heading to Arizona, Oregon or a little more north to the likes of Bellingham or Oak Harbor.

Elephants Have Big Ears

Its no news to many of you, I’m fighting fire with fire in a new business defense. It was time. Thus far, a surprising number of Brokers have expressed their support of what I’m trying to do to protect you and me. Please, if you have any feedback at all, I’d be delighted to hear from you, good or bad. Your feelings are important to me. I’ve published opinions prompted by Members in the past. Why not, it’s your neighborhood! If you have something you’d like to share, please do. My contact information is below. In the meantime, have a spectacular HOLIDAY SEASON and God Bless.

That’s a wrap for November 2019! Thanks so much for reading!!!

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Managing Broker

425.501.8424 | [email protected]

700 110th Ave NE, Suite 270
Bellevue, WA 98004