Sales Down 75% Year-over-Year. Lack of Inventory Likely the Reason. Median Price Range Near a Plateau. Seven Solidified During November

Here are the Homes that CLOSED Escrow during November!

	Model	NWMLS Number	Original Asking Price	Asking Price when Sold	Final Sale Price	Days on Market
1	Chelan	1507463	$468,950	$468,950	$468,950	67
2	Discovery	1516896	$639,000	$639,000	$634,000	9
3	Bainbridge	1521647	$839,900	$839,900	$840,000	2
4	Cedar	1513590	$878,000	$849,950	$848,450	72
5	Hemlock	1537236	$950,000	$950,000	$960,000	0
6	Hemlock	1527392	$985,000	$985,000	$965,000	358
7	Cedar	1512631	$1,100,000	$1,049,000	$1,020,000	42

January of this year, you received our much more comprehensive, 2018 Trilogy Year-in-Review. The final article prognosticated “peaks and valleys in sales activity”, as well “60 to 90 days becoming the norm” market time for 2019. That’s precisely what we saw. I say, “saw” because, with two homes in escrow and five with yard arms, you can put a nail in the coffin for getting anywhere near 100 sales for the year. We’ll need five sales in December to make the 80 units mark, making up the lowest total since 2011, when there were 74 (see the chart below). At 75 year-to-date, we’ll see if December can finish with five more.

Year-Over-Year Units Recap

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Resales	74	87	103	99	102	120	104	102	*75
Shea Homes New Construction	9	10	9	3	—	—	—	—	—
Total Sold Homes	83	97	112	102	102	120	104	101	*75

*Through November 2019.

Two Tiptoe into Escrow
Uncle Sam will have to get paid elsewhere this Christmas. Here are your two PENDING sales.

	Model	Northwest Multiple Listing Number	Original Asking Price	Asking Price when Offer Accepted	Days on Market
1	Orchard	1528373	$648,000	$648,000	34
2	Washington	1532530	$668,000	$668,000	31

Remember, Pending Sales are as of the last day of the month. It’s an accurate way to review sales month over month.

Each of these contracts are for attached product, as were the two most affordable sales in graph one. Four of the five remaining closed homes were upper-end homes. There was only one mid-level sale, making Trilogy not unlike the rest of King County. I encourage you to read this report on the home page of www.DevinSanfordHomes.com, where it will be followed by the Western Washington Market Report, compliments of the NWMLS. It shares the median price range “edged up just over a percentage point as compared to a year ago. This falls in line with multiple reports from a Pachyderm, sharing the “Island Collection” of homes, including the Vashon, Whidbey, Bainbridge, Vancouver and later Monaco and Nice floor plans has leveled out in pricing and, in some cases, taken a hard fall. I’d like to help it get back where it belongs. If you’re listing soon, ask me how.

We’re Prepared for WHATEVER!

Trilogy is not unlike King County, in this “mid-range” respect, and I’ve seen it coming for years. Smaller homes allow those with limited incomes to still enjoy the resort lifestyle. Buyers fight for them, helping them sell quickly. The upper end of the pricing spectrum, conversely, allows those with deep pocketbooks to reach into them for that Signature Home.

Five Fishing for Offers…
Trilogy Inventory as of November 30th, 2019

	Model	Northwest Multiple Listing Number	Original Asking Price	Current Asking Price	Days on Market
1	Chelan	1542841	$549,500	$549,500	4
2	Chelan	1521317	$549,950	$549,950	58
3	Sammamish	1523353	$615,979	$615,979	58
4	Maple	1468556	$899,995	$839,995	140
5	Hemlock	1541689	$980,000	$980,000	16

Remember, this inventory is as of the last day of the month. It’s an accurate way to review sales month over month.

Night Reflective Signage!

If you look into your own heart, and you find nothing wrong there, what is there to worry about? What is there to fear?

Confucius

Here’s a Recap of Year-to-Date Stats:
*New Days on Market (D.O.M.) Watch!

	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	April	May	June	July	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	YTD
$old	2	4	8	10	4	6	8	8	10	7	7		75
Pending	5	5	11	4	5	7	9	13	9	5	2
Active	9	8	12	20	19	19	18	9	7	9	5
$old D.O.M.	3.5	42	52	36	7	65	38	48	88	56	79
Active D.O.M.	87	95	52	53	69	78	90	87	86	110	55

There’s only so much the market will tolerate, and it seems we’ve reached it in the middle range. Extraordinary homes and/or locations are always the exception, of course. I believe the low end is to follow; I mean, how much is someone willing to pay for 1,400 square feet. Seattle and the surrounding area are expensive. The job world is flourishing around us and there’s no sign of it stopping soon. The Eastside, which includes Trilogy, will continue to see a rise in pricing at the upper end, with slight rises, at or below inflation, in the lesser ranges. For those seeking something more reasonable, many retirees are heading to Arizona, Oregon or a little more north to the likes of Bellingham or Oak Harbor.

Elephants Have Big Ears

Its no news to many of you, I’m fighting fire with fire in a new business defense. It was time. Thus far, a surprising number of Brokers have expressed their support of what I’m trying to do to protect you and me. Please, if you have any feedback at all, I’d be delighted to hear from you, good or bad. Your feelings are important to me. I’ve published opinions prompted by Members in the past. Why not, it’s your neighborhood! If you have something you’d like to share, please do. My contact information is below. In the meantime, have a spectacular HOLIDAY SEASON and God Bless.

That’s a wrap for November 2019! Thanks so much for reading!!!

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DEVIN SANFORD