The Elephant Presents…Trilogy at Redmond Ridge 2020 Year in Review

D. Sanford NW Market Reports , Real Estate , Real Estate News , Selling Your Home , Trilogy at Redmond Ridge , Trilogy Market Report Leave a Comment

December Finishes 2020 with 99 Units Sold…

            January Begins by Banging Out Six Sales…

                          The Elephant’s 2020 Year in Review…

                                                   Prognostications for 2021…

 

                                                                                                                                    

Flurry of Five to Finish off 2020 …Last December Sales!

  Model Square Footage NWMLS

Number

Original Asking Price Asking Price when Sold Final Sale Price Days on Market Remarks
1 Chelan 1,300 1642144 $569,000 $550,000 $550,000 95 ARCH Home- 2020’s Low $.
2 Whidbey 1,670 1691123 $759,000 $759,000 $780,000 2 Location and Upgraded!
3 Cedar 2,300 1621992 $990,000 $880,000 $860,000 133 Poorly Presented.
4 Cedar 2,300 1683045 $986,000 $986,000 $980,000 11 Well Presented.
5 Cedar 2,300 1678921 $1,100,000 $1,100,000 $1,050,000 19 Big Leaf Corner Greenbelt.

 

December finished off strong with six sales adding to the total of 99 closings for 2020. The numbers don’t show what a tumultuous year it was. We all know the obvious goings on in the world, so I’ll keep this report pertinent to Real Estate and home sales. Just one shy of the more typical year of 100 closings, give or take, we finished much stronger than the unusual 78 sales of 2019, caused greatly by broker confusion. The lack of Inventory throughout the year stretched out

Buyer’s Agents searches into Trilogy. Many of them didn’t know the ropes or difference in pricing to similar homes in King County but not within a resort community. This proved to drive pricing up and now it’s a new ballgame and we’re in the mix. Whether the sky is the limit or not, remains to be seen. Conversely, some homes were listed too low, adding to the consternation. Although things slow dramatically during the holidays, some tiring Buyers were out, negotiated and purchased a little below the asking prices on the high end. The final two lesser priced homes brought full-price or a bit more. That would all change in a flash mid-month with new listings turning over rapidly at full price in under a week. They would close after New Year.

 

January Starts off Strong with Six Closings

  Model Square Footage NWMLS

Number

Original Asking Price Asking Price when Sold Final Sale Price Days on Market Remarks
1 Chelan 1,300 1693509 $575,000 $575,000 $575,000 6 Vine Maple Way…Nice.
2 Orchard 1,440 1695480 $660,000 $660,000 $675,000 8 Twinberry Way
3 Discovery 1,352 1694496 $670,000 $670,000 $677,250 7 Previous Builder Model
4 Maple 2,360 1717395 $975,000 $975,000 $1,125,000 5 Big Leaf Way Beauty
5 Cedar 2,280 17147585 $1,100,000 $1,100,000 $1,164,500 1 Golf Course Near Club
6 Oakwood 2,730 1691467 $1,299,000 $1,299,000 $1,386,000 5 Large Lot on Big Leaf Way

The Elephant Quickly Securing for a Buyer in a Bidding War.

 

January experienced something this reporter has never seen in my 17 focused years of serving Trilogy. That something was periods of days at a time with zero homes available to frustrated Buyers, especially those who are determined to join the Trilogy experience, many say is “just another day in Paradise”. From my seat, it’s been a bit surreal to experience and I expect those stretches will continue. Notice five of six closings went well above the asking price; the Maple Owner is doing a jig realizing $150,000 over when the bidding war ended. As I type, there are two homes available; one poorly presented, high-end home that came back on the market after being under contract and a 1.5 story Washington plan. A healthy marketplace, where offers are carefully met with counter offers and willing Buyers and Sellers come together somewhere in the middle is parking lotted right now. It’s a Seller’s market and the arrow is pegged to the left. If you have an ugly house, metaphorically speaking, now is a phenomenal  time to get a healthy sum for it. That doesn’t mean you don’t address the needed repairs, stage it well and keep realistic on the asking price.

 

Currently, there’s approximately a two-week supply of inventory county wide. A fair playing field for Buyers and Sellers is typically four to five months; six nationwide. You can shave off a month or two in King County and we are still a far cry from that. Still, this is not the time to skimp on presentation or representation, for that matter. You get what you pay for. Listing Brokers should be working harder than ever right now to, not only create great interest with the marketing, but to work diligently with Buyer’s Agents to tie up the most solid Buyer, worked to the highest price possible. Lot’s of action on a property demands much more work of a Listing Broker than a home that sells at a moderate speed in a normal market ultimately, responding to one offer at a time. It involves at least quadruple the time on the phone negotiating, typing emails to Buyer’s Agents, creating, and examining spreadsheets, and a lot more right through the bad news phone calls to those who didn’t get the home. Now is not the time to be seeking discounts from weak or volume Brokers that have too many listings if you want full concentration to maximize your profits. The 10 or 20 grand you might avoid paying out on a million-dollar home could lose you several times that off  the end sales price. It takes a lot of effort which few do well; for me, it’s a passion, a skill, and my duty.

 

The Elephant has industry leading tools in his trunk like “Concierge”, a zero-interest credit card to help you prepare, repair, stage or make improvements to your home with no money out of your pocket until the home closes. There’s no hard pull on your credit and you have up to 12 months to repay. I’d be happy to discuss this or any of the other great Compass products that help you get more for your home.

99 Sales Fulfill the Pachyderm’s Prediction!

 

 

Look forward to an Elephant of a year. Both 20 and 21 are good Poker Hands. I’d bet on either for a more enjoyable period for all and you can put that in your Trunk.

 

 

Zillow Review

 

“It is a difficult time to be a broker, but Devin is a master at adapting. He worked tirelessly to make my sale happen despite numerous setbacks. His negotiation skills are amazing, just what you want on your side in a real estate sale. His experience showed in every part of the process.”

 

 

G. Powers, Former Trilogy Resident

 

 

 

Four Pending at January Month End

  Model Square Footage NWMLS

Number

Original Asking Price Asking Price when Sold Days on Market Remarks
1 Chelan 1,300 1693509 $575,000 $575,000 6 Vine Maple Way, Div. 8
2 Orchard 1,440 1695480 $660,000 $660,000 8 Lovely on Twinberry Way
3 Discovery 1,352 1694496 $670,000 $670,000 7 Original Model Home in Gallery
4 Oakwood 2,730 1691467 $1,299,000 $1,299,000 5 Shy Quarter Acre Greenbelt Lot

 

 

Two Homes for Sale in Trilogy

  Model Square Footage NWMLS

Number

Original Asking Price Current Asking Price Days on Market Remarks
1 Hemlock 2,305 1718931 $1,298,000 $1,298,000 10 Back on Market-Golf Course
2 Washington   1723273        

 

 

A Recap of 2020 Month over Month Statistics:

Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. YTD
 
$old 2 8 10 6 5 5 9 11 15 13 10 5 99
Pending 7 8 7 4 5 9 9 18 15 10 6 4  
Active 9 6 7 10 14 14 9 7 3 4 1 1  
$old D.O.M. 38 19 7 67 85  

28

 

26

 

22

 

31

 

60

 

8

 

31

 

 

Active D.O.M. 63 46 73 48 43  

55

 

76

 

86

 

44

 

42

 

47

 

78

 

 

Floor Plan Count for 2020 Sold Homes

Port Collection Std. Square  Footage No. Units Sold Lakes Collection Std. Square Footage No. Units Sold   Island Collection Std. Square Footage No. Units Sold
Angeles 1,195 0   Chelan 1,295 5   Vashon 1,563 6
Townsend 1,337 4   Union 1,550 5   Monaco 1,568 1
Discovery 1,352 11   Sammamish 1,623 4   Whidbey 1,671 10
Orchard 1,436 4   Washington 1,871 3   Bainbridge 1,824 7
Madison 1,787 1           Nice 1,904 2
                Vancouver 1,925 2
                     
Forest Collection       Estate Collection       Lowest Price: ARCH

Chelan

 

$505,000

Hemlock 2,161 10   Monticello 2,296 3        
Maple 2,298 7   Oakwood  

2,657

 

2

  Highest Price:  

Redford

 

$1,395,000

Cedar 2,360 7   Redford 2,793 1   Average Price:  

$822,025

 
Alder 2,500 1   Maryhill  

3,082

 

3

  Median Price:  

$758,000

 
                Avg. % of Asking Price:  

 

99.51%

 

 

Square footage is based upon the developer’s blueprints and can vary depending upon structural selections prior to breaking ground. Several of the upper end floor plans have options for expanded interior space in lieu of a third car garage, for instance, which would result in larger reported square footage. Bay Windows are the reason for the smaller size differences we see in most listings versus what we see in the graph. Washington State does not include the garage in interior square footage when a home is being appraised or listed for sale. I thought this information may be helpful to the many of you, new to Trilogy since the model gallery was no longer in existence. There are 23 total floor plans, all of them with Master Bedrooms on the main floor. Only four have a half story, typically adding an additional bedroom, a bathroom, and a loft. They are the Madison, Washington, Alder and Maryhill.

 

There were three homes sold unlisted on the multiple. These are not reported until the county has recorded the sale. There were also, three A.R.C.H. homes, a Regional Coalition for Affordable Housing, sold during the year. These usually do not have even the standard level of upgrades as the standard Shea Home but can be upgraded. We can consider an arm’s length sale of a regular Chelan at $550,000 to be our true lowest price of 2020.

 

18 Homes sold for one-million dollars or more, making up for over 18% of the sales. That’s wonderful for homeowners’ equity. The Elephant still holds the highest price record with a couple of prior sales at $1.4 Million Dollars. I anticipate that will get squashed soon.

 

Why is this a Seller’s Market?

 

We are currently at about a .4 month’s supply of Inventory within King and Pierce Counties. Coming into December, we were down about 55% from last year and similar numbers continue. We have more sales closing and taking homes off the market than new homes coming on. The absorption rate is off the charts. A rate of 16.7% or below would be considered a Buyer’s Market while 33.3% or above is considered a Seller’s Market. A neutral market would be from 16.67% to 33.33%. The December 2020 absorption rate for our area based on Closed Sales of 240.5 was increased by 115.9% compared to last year and up 39.2% compared to the prior month. We are out of inventory so, when a new home comes on the market, Buyers are swarming to it, waiving inspections, making cash offers with little to no contingencies and are including escalation clauses offering an automatic price increase of a pre-determined amount of money over any competing offer up to a ceiling amount well above the offering price. Even so, many Buyers are having to go through this multiple times before finally securing a home. Frankly, it’s nuts but it won’t last forever. Buyers are getting exhausted and some are finding it hard to cope. However, there is hope for them and I’ll discuss that below.

 

 

Prognostications for 2021…

 

I’d anticipate the great start of January to ascend each month well into Summer. Inventory should continue to turn over quickly and I suspect many, who had been considering selling at some point in the future, will take advantage of the phenomenal opportunity the current market presents and will decide to list their homes earlier than planned. For the financial committee, I would expect an increase of 10% or  more closings year over year. 110 or even 120 doesn’t seem out of the question. I think we’ll see some slowing down mid-summer as many Buyers will have found a new residence in Trilogy and Buyer fatigue will thin out the rest. Days on market should extend as the year rolls on and we’ll see some degree of normalcy as that indicating arrow eases a bit closer to the straight up point, although not quite.

 

Yes, there is hope for Buyers so don’t give up. Statistics show that new listings were less than pending sales coming into December and into January every year for the last four years. Then, new listings begin to catch up meaning there is seasonality. Buyers, Summer is coming and there will be brighter days where competition for homes does ease up. Hang in there.

 

That’s a wrap for 2020….Thank the Lord! That’s, also a wrap for January 2021!

Known as “The Elephant”, Devin has been serving Trilogy since 2003, having facilitated over 400 personal real estate transactions within the 1,522-home community. With prior experience, as an award-winning licensed Managing Real Estate Broker and Designated Broker for the developer, Shea Homes, Inc. and currently serving the private sector since 2009, we think it’s fair to say he has an unequaled knowledge of Trilogy at Redmond Ridge over any Resale Broker in the Industry.

 

 

 

NOTICE: – If you’d like to join the hundreds of Trilogy Members who get these monthly reports DAYS SOONER via E-Newsletter, join at www.DevinSanfordHomes.com under the “ABOUT” tab and we’d be happy to add you to our list of privileged recipients.

 

 

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About the Author
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D. Sanford